Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31b6…8365 crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16 (-3%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +72.5% +56.1% 50% 50% -19.1%
≤30d 15 +14.1% +3.2% 53% 53% -19.8%
≤90d 15 +14.1% +3.2% 53% 53% -19.8%
all 15 +14.1% +3.2% 53% 53% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 53% -19.8%
10% -6.7% 53% -27.5%
15% -15.7% 40% -34.5%
20% -23.9% 40% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$52 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage12d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $154 −$149 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $69 +$161 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $37 +$95 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$9 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records