Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
31 0x31b7…21fb crypto 492 markets active 0h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,913 (+11%) realized +$4,989 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%241W / 249L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$190est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$721
7 days+$1,476
14 days+$819
30 days+$1,945
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$930
sports 23% +$3,130
other 5% −$408
world 1% +$31
politics 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +6.5% -3.6% 52% 52% +1.0%
≤30d 340 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 46% -3.6%
≤90d 346 +1.0% -8.6% 47% 47% -1.0%
all 490 +2.1% -7.6% 49% 48% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 48% -0.8%
10% -16.5% 46% -10.3%
15% -24.5% 43% -19.0%
20% -31.9% 38% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$68 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$4,989
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses241 / 249
Est. fees paid−$190
Open positions1
Markets (closed)490 / 492
History coverage598d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 490 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 61¢ 40¢ $214 $139 −$76 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $397 −$380 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $182 −$181 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $472 +$136 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $240 +$100 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $201 −$53 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $92 +$96 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $90 +$106 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $161 −$158 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $147 +$128 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$47 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -94%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $90 −$71 -79%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $230 −$147 -64%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $258 −$257 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $96 +$94 +98%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -94%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $218 +$56 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $123 −$118 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$100 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $96 +$82 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $119 +$44 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $184 −$65 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $96 −$52 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $215 −$212 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $72 −$23 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$100 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $221 +$221 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $131 −$42 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $158 −$11 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$59 -59%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $120 −$117 -97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $206 −$202 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $173 +$149 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $80 +$99 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $193 −$188 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$24 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $196 −$192 -98%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 17 $162 +$83 +52%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $94 −$92 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $128 −$125 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $160 +$111 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$96 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $83 +$117 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $141 −$136 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $93 +$100 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $117 +$99 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $60 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $53 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $19 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $14 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $18 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $345 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $32 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $40 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.77 · official $284.84 · 3202 history records