Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:52:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
31 0x31b7…b8e4 sports 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$267 (+2%) realized +$267 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%66W / 47L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$216est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$403
7 days+$5
14 days−$234
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$67
other 9% +$31
politics 2% +$189
crypto 2% +$3
world 1% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +44.8% +31.0% 78% 44% -9.4%
≤30d 96 -1.5% -10.9% 53% 32% -10.5%
≤90d 113 +2.4% -7.3% 58% 37% -9.0%
all 113 +2.4% -7.3% 58% 37% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 37% -9.0%
10% -16.2% 25% -17.7%
15% -24.3% 21% -25.6%
20% -31.7% 14% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$45 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses66 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$216
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage44d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $717 +$62 +9%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $548 −$184 -34%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $968 +$56 +6%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $107 +$28 +26%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $114 +$17 +15%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $90 +$422 +467%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $422 −$420 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $179 +$21 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $671 −$275 -41%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $289 +$16 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $275 +$12 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $38 −$11 -29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $309 +$19 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $198 −$33 -17%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $412 +$12 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $384 +$8 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $294 +$2 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $225 +$61 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1,036 +$137 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $166 +$6 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $366 +$47 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $132 −$4 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $251 +$18 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $66 −$13 -20%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $285 −$38 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $126 −$37 -29%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 09 $332 +$149 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $200 18m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 100¢ $200 24m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 91¢ $78 38m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 85¢ $73 39m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 72¢ $8 45m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 65¢ $63 46m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 65¢ $80 46m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 65¢ $77 46m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 57¢ $203 47m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 49¢ $172 49m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 41¢ $8 49m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 41¢ $3 49m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 41¢ $3 49m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 41¢ $41 49m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 41¢ $3 49m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 41¢ $3 49m
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 40¢ $204 51m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS $0 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS $14 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS $3 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS $5 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS $0 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS $1 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS $146 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS 14¢ $5 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS 14¢ $119 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS 14¢ $51 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS 14¢ $11 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL LOS 14¢ $10 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY LOS 13¢ $548 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 848 history records