Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
31 0x31b9…150b sports 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,931 (+6%) realized +$11,852 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%162W / 142L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$634per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$1,773est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,006
7 days+$342
14 days+$3,606
30 days+$6,953
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$8,411
other 12% +$3,584
crypto 0% −$113
world 0% −$39
finance 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 51% -5.9%
≤30d 150 -1.4% -10.8% 53% 53% -1.0%
≤90d 304 -7.1% -16.0% 53% 52% -3.9%
all 304 -7.1% -16.0% 53% 52% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 52% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 46% -13.1%
15% -31.3% 41% -21.5%
20% -38.1% 36% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$337 vs −$302 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized+$11,852
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses162 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1,773
Open positions1
Markets (closed)304 / 305
History coverage67d
Avg bet$634
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 54¢ 80¢ $162 $241 +$79 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $2,087 +$1,359 +65%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $610 −$610 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $153 +$49 +32%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $235 −$226 -96%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $136 −$136 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $528 +$337 +64%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $204 +$200 +98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $102 +$98 +96%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $228 +$172 +75%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $135 −$135 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $518 −$518 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $142 −$142 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $218 −$213 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $126 −$126 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $102 +$123 +121%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $63 −$62 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $142 +$107 +75%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 +$102 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $114 +$86 +75%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$37 +73%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $57 +$43 +75%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $122 +$78 +64%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $98 +$52 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $51 +$146 +285%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $177 +$113 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $86 +$64 +75%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $63 −$62 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $74 −$73 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $134 −$131 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $127 +$73 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $201 +$129 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $308 +$152 +49%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $110 +$70 +64%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $88 +$92 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $3,446 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $200 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $213 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $224 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $240 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $73 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $6 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $11 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $53 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $23 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $534 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $1 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $122 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $100 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $8 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $122 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $122 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $2 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $610 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 45¢ $26 6h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 45¢ $76 6h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 45¢ $100 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.50 · official $238.50 · 974 history records