Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31b9…71da crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$816 (-17%) realized −$816 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$1,573
14 days−$1,277
30 days−$1,040
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$612
sports 11% −$140
other 3% −$161
world 3% −$71
tech 2% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -58.2% -62.2% 21% 19% -62.5%
≤30d 83 -5.1% -14.2% 46% 41% -29.6%
≤90d 83 -5.1% -14.2% 46% 41% -29.6%
all 83 -5.1% -14.2% 46% 41% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 41% -29.6%
10% -22.4% 39% -36.4%
15% -29.9% 35% -42.5%
20% -36.8% 29% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$53 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$816
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 45
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage27d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $116 −$112 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $69 +$46 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $248 −$239 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $62 −$59 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$18 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5PM ET Jun 12 $108 −$108 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $100 +$39 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $125 +$137 +110%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $151 −$148 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$32 +32%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $30 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$118 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$37 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $38 −$33 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$36 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$12 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$15 +91%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -78%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -78%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -75%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -72%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $48 −$37 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $73 +$51 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $134 +$100 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $13 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $71 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $21 +$25 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 06 $29 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $62 +$36 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 431 history records