Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31c1…7047 sports 1102 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$114,275 (-5%) realized −$113,767 · open −$508
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%585W / 513L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,253per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$22,908est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,708
7 days−$2,065
14 days−$39,937
30 days−$19,889
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$56,274
other 22% −$76,188
crypto 1% −$7,549
world 0% −$536
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -4.4% -13.5% 54% 51% -18.7%
≤30d 192 -8.6% -17.3% 51% 50% -22.8%
≤90d 1097 -4.4% -13.5% 53% 53% -14.6%
all 1098 -4.3% -13.4% 53% 53% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 53% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 52% -22.8%
15% -29.3% 49% -30.3%
20% -36.2% 36% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$2,253) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,561 vs −$2,053 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$113,767
Unrealized−$508
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses585 / 513
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$22,908
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1098 / 1102
History coverage98d
Avg bet$2,253
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1098 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Irvine: Claire Hill vs Maria Aytoyan Maria Aytoyan 68¢ 64¢ $292 $277 −$15 (-5%)
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Thiago Seyboth Wild 62¢ $493 $0 −$493 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $443 +$700 +158%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 17 $379 +$255 +67%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 17 $394 −$14 -4%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $502 −$495 -99%
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Badosa (+1.5) Jun 17 $345 −$340 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $827 +$512 +62%
Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 17 $360 +$274 +76%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $335 −$330 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $295 +$235 +80%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $266 +$268 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $97 +$119 +124%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $406 +$255 +63%
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 16 $398 +$8 +2%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $653 −$640 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $494 −$485 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $289 −$284 -98%
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) Jun 16 $701 +$83 +12%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $987 −$976 -99%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $864 −$853 -99%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $649 +$339 +52%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $1,011 +$554 +55%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $991 +$668 +67%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $400 −$393 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $840 +$551 +66%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $1,046 −$1,032 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $791 +$256 +32%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $538 +$235 +44%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $199 −$104 -52%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 12 $603 −$529 -88%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $352 +$200 +57%
Set Handicap: Dart (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) Jun 12 $999 +$381 +38%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Ella McDonald Jun 12 $661 +$886 +134%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 11 $991 −$979 -99%
Set Handicap: Prozorova (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 11 $803 −$796 -99%
Set Handicap: Boulter (-1.5) vs Cristian (+1.5) Jun 11 $600 −$592 -99%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 10 $704 −$695 -99%
Set Handicap: Griekspoor (-1.5) vs Zandschulp (+1.5) Jun 10 $1,007 +$559 +56%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $1,010 +$505 +50%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $1,011 +$602 +60%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $718 −$710 -99%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $1,020 +$1,192 +117%
Makarska: Lucie Havlickova vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 09 $72 −$72 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $602 −$602 -100%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 09 $343 −$343 -100%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 09 $821 −$821 -100%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 09 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 09 $1,137 −$1,137 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 09 $1,557 −$1,557 -100%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $986 −$969 -98%
Set Handicap: Damm (-1.5) vs Munar (+1.5) Jun 09 $464 −$460 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Irvine: Claire Hill vs Maria Aytoyan BUY Maria Aytoyan 68¢ $294 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 62¢ $499 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY 56¢ $542 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 100¢ $1,144 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 38¢ $443 3h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) SELL Sabalenka 100¢ $634 3h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 59¢ $379 5h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 58¢ $380 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 41¢ $494 7h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 53¢ $502 7h
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Badosa (+1.5) BUY Gauff 53¢ $345 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $1,339 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $827 9h
Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) SELL Bartunkova 100¢ $633 9h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 53¢ $335 11h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $394 15h
Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) BUY Bartunkova 56¢ $360 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 55¢ $295 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $97 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $266 23h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $661 23h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $406 25h
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou SELL No 54¢ $406 25h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 32¢ $653 25h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Suzan Lamens 43¢ $494 29h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 36¢ $289 30h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 62¢ $700 30h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 66¢ $287 31h
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) BUY Boisson 44¢ $701 37h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 56¢ $304 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.05 · official $812.05 · 2393 history records