Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:02:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x31c1…bc19 sports 268 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,445 (+3%) realized +$3,159 · open +$1,286
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate60%157W / 105L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$640per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$710est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$7,291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days+$1,220
14 days−$5,266
30 days−$1,211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$6,508
other 24% −$5,456
world 13% +$1,971
crypto 9% +$368
tech 5% −$212
politics 1% −$30
finance 1% +$124
culture 0% +$300
economics 0% −$303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +2.6% -7.1% 65% 58% -4.2%
≤30d 113 -8.1% -16.9% 61% 54% -10.8%
≤90d 194 -1.5% -10.8% 61% 49% -8.9%
all 262 -3.3% -12.5% 60% 46% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 46% -8.4%
10% -20.9% 36% -17.2%
15% -28.6% 27% -25.2%
20% -35.6% 18% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$797) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$259 vs −$371 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$7,291
Realized+$3,159
Unrealized+$1,286
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses157 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$710
Open positions6
Markets (closed)262 / 268
History coverage238d
Avg bet$640
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $1,500 $2,630 +$1,130 (+75%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 67¢ 90¢ $1,005 $1,358 +$352 (+35%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1,000 $1,300 +$300 (+30%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 82¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,219 +$219 (+22%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 60¢ 94¢ $500 $784 +$284 (+57%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $1,000 $1 −$999 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 24 $200 +$16 +8%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,013 +$805 +79%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,010 −$2,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro Jun 23 $200 $0 +0%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $503 +$138 +27%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $502 +$86 +17%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,519 +$991 +65%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $504 +$210 +42%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,010 −$34 -3%
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots Jun 22 $608 +$423 +70%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $507 +$436 +86%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $254 +$237 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,009 −$324 -32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,012 +$655 +65%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $506 +$356 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,006 +$229 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,011 +$602 +60%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $506 +$371 +73%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $508 +$580 +114%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $201 +$37 +18%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $607 +$393 +65%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $504 −$500 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,007 +$295 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $502 +$73 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$97 +19%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $505 −$235 -47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $2,022 −$2,022 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 +$220 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$520 -52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $506 −$506 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,115 −$1,115 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $504 +$165 +33%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,110 −$276 -13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $509 −$509 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$473 +93%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 14 $303 −$303 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $504 −$504 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $506 +$288 +57%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $506 +$288 +57%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $510 −$211 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $508 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 82¢ $1,005 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 2h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,012 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY ex-MANA eSports 92¢ $200 12h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 55¢ $1,013 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $101 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,010 28h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $200 37h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 97¢ $2,510 47h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $503 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $506 2d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $502 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 58¢ $1,013 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 62¢ $506 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $976 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $504 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 2d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 3d
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $203 3d
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots BUY Yes 59¢ $405 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $254 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 73¢ $504 3d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $508 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $1,012 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $1,003 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,291.16 · official $7,291.16 (match) · 936 history records