Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31c1…39e5 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$103 (-10%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$59
other 16% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -27.3% -34.2% 35% 35% -21.2%
≤30d 20 -27.3% -34.2% 35% 35% -21.2%
≤90d 20 -27.3% -34.2% 35% 35% -21.2%
all 20 -27.3% -34.2% 35% 35% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 35% -21.2%
10% -40.5% 25% -28.7%
15% -46.2% 15% -35.6%
20% -51.5% 15% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$20 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $49 +$26 +53%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $95 −$45 -47%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $100 −$9 -9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $14 −$3 -20%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $16 −$16 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $50 −$34 -68%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $69 −$19 -28%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $71 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $201 +$22 +11%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $56 +$8 +15%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 −$19 -48%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $68 −$38 -56%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $134 +$72 +54%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 +$4 +116%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +29%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $49 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 73¢ $49 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $50 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 21¢ $50 4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 82¢ $92 5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $100 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $95 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $2 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $11 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $2 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $10 10h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $16 33h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $16 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $50 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $49 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $69 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $71 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 80¢ $150 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $137 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 77¢ $64 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 68¢ $74 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $64 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $56 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $21 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $40 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 27¢ $30 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $68 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 93¢ $177 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $110 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.20 · official $74.20 (match) · 40 history records