Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31c2…1d13 crypto 581 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (282 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$226 (-3%) realized −$226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%242W / 339L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day281.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$101
14 days−$182
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (282 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 471 -8.1% -16.8% 42% 29% -10.8%
≤30d 581 -10.0% -18.5% 42% 31% -11.5%
≤90d 581 -10.0% -18.5% 42% 31% -11.5%
all 581 -10.0% -18.5% 42% 31% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover281.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 31% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 23% -19.9%
15% -33.4% 18% -27.7%
20% -40.0% 14% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses242 / 339
Open positions0
Markets (closed)581 / 581
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day281.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 581 Trades
no open positions (125 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $14 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$6 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$14 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$12 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $13 −$7 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$47 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$19 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $35 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $18 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$8 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$14 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $81 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $42 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $35 −$21 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $38 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $38 −$13 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$7 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $18 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $12 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3427 history records