Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x31c4…622f
sports · 541 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$579 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$342 · open +$67
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,303
Realized+$342
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses209 / 206
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions186
Markets (closed)415 / 541
History coverage10d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day306.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 186 History 415 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$354
14 days+$342
30 days+$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 44¢ 100¢ $24 $54 +$30 (+128%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 2¢ 57¢ $2 $48 +$46 (+2698%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 62¢ $24 $46 +$21 (+89%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $28 $34 +$7 (+25%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 80¢ 92¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+15%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 35¢ 81¢ $12 $28 +$16 (+136%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 57¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-5%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 84¢ 82¢ $27 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 28¢ 50¢ $14 $25 +$11 (+80%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 72¢ 80¢ $22 $25 +$2 (+10%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 76¢ 63¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-17%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 39¢ 46¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+18%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ 40¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-18%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Yes 21¢ 44¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+107%)
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Partizan 57¢ 54¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 37¢ 56¢ $12 $19 +$6 (+53%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 34¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 44¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $2 +$3 +128%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 +$12 +66%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$25 +123%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $2 +$1 +90%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +75%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $43 +$12 +28%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$27 +272%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $59 −$21 -35%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +13%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $15 +$8 +52%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +74%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $18 +$18 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $26 +$36 +137%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $9 +$14 +149%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $48 +$4 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $56 −$3 -5%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $24 −$6 -24%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $12 +$17 +140%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $42 −$35 -84%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $12 +$5 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$5 +140%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $14 +$6 +46%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2 +$2 +71%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $22 +$16 +74%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $92.50 Week of June 8 2 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $32 +$1 +3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $10 +$9 +93%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$5 -26%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% +$314
world 19% +$190
other 15% −$86
politics 4% +$12
finance 1% −$38
tech 1% +$18
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 61¢ $2 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 14m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 14m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $1 14m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 49¢ $1 23m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $1 25m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $1 27m
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $1 34m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 46¢ $28 35m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 35m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $1 39m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $1 40m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $1 40m
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 48¢ $7 48m
Partizan vs. BC Dubai BUY Partizan 61¢ $10 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 51m
Partizan vs. BC Dubai BUY Partizan 53¢ $10 59m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 37¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $14 1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $1 1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $1 1h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Anubis Gaming 77¢ $2 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 314 -1.7% -11.1% 51% 47% -1.2%
≤30d 415 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 47% -3.5%
≤90d 415 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 47% -3.5%
all 415 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 47% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover306.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 47% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 42% -12.7%
15% -27.5% 38% -21.2%
20% -34.7% 31% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,303.12 · official $1,304.75 (match) · 3500 history records