Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31c5…b37b crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-14%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%41W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$55
other 5% −$24
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 40% -26.1%
≤30d 84 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 40% -26.1%
≤90d 84 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 40% -26.1%
all 84 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 40% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 40% -26.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 32% -33.2%
15% -24.6% 27% -39.6%
20% -32.0% 18% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses41 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 191 history records