Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31ca…3ce4 other 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-9%) realized −$55 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate76%31W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$77
other 32% −$1
world 4% +$2
sports 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -1.5% -10.8% 76% 59% -17.8%
≤30d 41 -1.5% -10.8% 76% 59% -17.8%
≤90d 41 -1.5% -10.8% 76% 59% -17.8%
all 41 -1.5% -10.8% 76% 59% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 59% -17.8%
10% -19.4% 32% -25.7%
15% -27.2% 17% -32.8%
20% -34.3% 5% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$16 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses31 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage6d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 87¢ 74¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +48%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $8 −$2 -26%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$3 +21%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $66 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $8 $0 +3%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 28m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 31m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY No 77¢ $5 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 90¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 78¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 33¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 81¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 83¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.23 · official $43.67 · 105 history records