Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:41:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x31ca…6e94 other 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,289 (+4%) realized +$3,201 · open +$1,088
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%100W / 61L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$602per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$11,009now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,972
7 days−$2,842
14 days−$2,942
30 days−$1,131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$169
crypto 19% +$131
sports 8% +$3,816
politics 4% +$18
world 0% +$73
tech 0% −$56
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +32.5% +19.9% 71% 71% -31.6%
≤30d 30 +20.4% +8.9% 63% 63% -15.4%
≤90d 94 +17.1% +6.0% 63% 63% +2.4%
all 161 +2.6% -7.2% 62% 48% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 48% -6.6%
10% -16.1% 43% -15.5%
15% -24.2% 35% -23.7%
20% -31.6% 26% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$297 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$11,009
Realized+$3,201
Unrealized+$1,088
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses100 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions8
Markets (closed)161 / 174
History coverage276d
Avg bet$602
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $6,233 $7,147 +$914 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1,741 $2,037 +$296 (+17%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $1,098 $1,126 +$28 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $500 $342 −$158 (-32%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $333 +$144 +43%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $208 +$102 +49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $102 +$148 +146%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $232 +$138 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,879 +$1,375 +73%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 18 $52 −$26 -50%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,108 −$1,100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$134 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,215 +$1,054 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,012 −$5,000 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $26 +$50 +197%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $56 +$90 +161%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2,533 +$1,765 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $61 +$161 +262%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1,013 +$392 +39%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $612 +$317 +52%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $71 +$129 +180%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $1,304 +$150 +12%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $20 +$56 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $51 +$60 +119%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $101 +$55 +55%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $20 +$12 +60%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $77 +$159 +207%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $301 +$52 +17%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 16 $51 +$77 +150%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $77 +$269 +350%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 27¢ $31 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $10 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 42¢ $203 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $131 17h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $125 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 40¢ $102 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $107 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $107 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,879 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,010 3d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $26 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $533 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $308 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $34 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $210 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $58 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekis BUY 29¢ $102 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $31 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Por BUY $26 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $806 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,008.71 · official $11,039.17 (match) · 418 history records