Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31d1…e34e world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$6 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$10
politics 10% +$1
other 7% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.7% -13.8% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 3 -1.6% -10.9% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 8 +7.5% -2.8% 25% 12% -6.9%
all 20 -6.1% -15.1% 50% 5% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 5% -7.2%
10% -23.2% 5% -16.1%
15% -30.6% 5% -24.2%
20% -37.4% 5% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage458d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 39¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $40 −$2 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $38 −$4 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $16 +$11 +71%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 French Open? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jayson Tatum play in Game 5? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 28 $13 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 03 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $13 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 37¢ $42 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $38 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $40 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $9 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $9 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $43 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $43 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 75¢ $40 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 73¢ $39 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $6 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $18 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $19 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $43 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $15 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $19 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $38 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $27 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 33d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? BUY No 96¢ $1 356d
Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $0 374d
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? BUY Yes $0 386d
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 99¢ $2 390d
Will Jayson Tatum play in Game 5? BUY No 100¢ $1 407d
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? SELL No 95¢ $13 421d
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? BUY No 95¢ $13 422d
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? BUY No 98¢ $13 423d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY No 96¢ $13 445d
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? SELL No 97¢ $14 445d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.46 · official $44.46 (match) · 45 history records