Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31d4…a7ab sports 377 markets active 2d ago coverage 73d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,258 (-0%) realized −$1,258 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%168W / 209L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$762per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$4,684est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$6,159
other 2% +$3,158
world 0% −$1,050
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -10.2% -18.8% 34% 34% -26.2%
≤30d 92 -4.9% -13.9% 43% 43% -13.7%
≤90d 377 -0.7% -10.2% 45% 44% -10.8%
all 377 -0.7% -10.2% 45% 44% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 44% -10.8%
10% -18.8% 44% -19.3%
15% ← realistic here -26.6% 43% -27.1%
20% -33.8% 42% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$1,030) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$851 vs −$703 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses168 / 209
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$4,684
Open positions0
Markets (closed)377 / 377
History coverage73d
Avg bet$762
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 377 Trades
no open positions (127 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,001 −$988 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,065 −$1,050 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $466 +$424 +91%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $74 −$72 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $587 −$580 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $725 +$574 +79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,275 −$1,275 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $776 +$522 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $376 −$367 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $347 −$340 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,030 +$469 +46%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,000 −$989 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $355 −$348 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,015 −$1,003 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $615 −$601 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $538 −$528 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $455 +$295 +65%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $84 −$82 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $276 −$270 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $477 +$523 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $239 +$1,699 +712%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $597 +$403 +67%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $285 −$279 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $673 −$660 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $716 +$1,544 +216%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $285 +$433 +152%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $868 −$854 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,446 −$1,420 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $480 −$480 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,010 +$600 +60%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,375 −$1,375 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $261 −$261 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $544 +$856 +157%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $355 −$350 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $484 −$481 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $975 +$1,025 +105%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $692 −$686 -99%
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play Jun 06 $692 +$444 +64%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $568 +$691 +122%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $516 +$784 +152%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $245 −$244 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $270 −$270 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $522 −$512 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $366 +$434 +119%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $99 −$96 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $237 −$232 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $77 +$32 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $1,001 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,065 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $890 3d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $74 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $297 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $166 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $587 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $1,299 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $725 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $604 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $104 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $49 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $510 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $1,299 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 22¢ $376 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 59¢ $776 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 34¢ $347 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $1,498 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $1,000 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 68¢ $1,030 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 29¢ $355 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $1,015 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 23¢ $615 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 36¢ $206 5d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $749 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 39¢ $332 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2048 history records