Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31d8…e99b sports 51 markets active 17h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6,122 (+2%) realized +$6,122 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$5,246per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$401est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,296
7 days−$20,756
14 days−$15,856
30 days−$7,835
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$74,487
crypto 33% −$63,001
other 11% −$5,223
economics 4% +$96
politics 2% −$2,613
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -77.1% -79.3% 0% 0% -49.6%
≤30d 13 -26.9% -33.8% 38% 38% -17.9%
≤90d 18 -30.9% -37.4% 33% 33% -44.5%
all 51 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 37% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 37% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 33% -17.0%
15% -26.9% 29% -25.1%
20% -34.1% 22% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$6,379) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,400 vs −$3,655 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$401
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage588d
Avg bet$5,246
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $38,074 −$11,966 -31%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3,393 −$3,330 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,460 −$5,460 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,137 −$1,116 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,881 −$733 -39%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,009 +$324 +16%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2,010 +$368 +18%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7,516 +$5,303 +71%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $8,048 −$96 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $3,914 +$949 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,318 −$1,302 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $9,999 +$9,323 +93%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $5,000 −$173 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $5,000 +$4,852 +97%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 11 $14,367 −$14,367 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Apr 11 $35,083 −$35,083 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 11 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $6,379 +$14,885 +233%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Feb 21 $15,238 −$15,238 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $5,216 +$2,418 +46%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 03 $5,000 +$3,333 +67%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 08 $5,022 +$54 +1%
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) Dec 07 $10,000 +$35,455 +354%
Chris Eubank Jr. vs Conor Benn Nov 15, 2025 Nov 16 $5,685 +$8,321 +146%
Allen vs. de Ridder Oct 18 $4,600 −$117 -2%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Oct 12 $7,864 −$4,958 -63%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 05 $6,990 +$14,299 +205%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 29 $5,042 −$2,424 -48%
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang Sep 14 $5,555 −$5,555 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho Sep 07 $3,000 +$3,250 +108%
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Sterling Aug 23 $8,400 +$3,588 +43%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Aug 17 $13,925 +$5,953 +43%
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Jul 19 $980 +$275 +28%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? May 10 $315 −$96 -31%
Will the next Pope be from Europe? May 09 $950 −$823 -87%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? May 09 $501 −$85 -17%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? May 09 $297 −$151 -51%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May? May 08 $204 −$8 -4%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $3,000 +$171 +6%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Apr 29 $1,374 −$189 -14%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 25 $290 −$78 -27%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 04 $50 +$35 +70%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 26 $200 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? Dec 22 $441 −$356 -81%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 18 $250 +$96 +38%
Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night Dec 06 $450 −$100 -22%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $350 −$350 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3,515 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15,756 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $30 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6,789 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $3,393 21h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $89 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23,832 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $699 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $433 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $428 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $3,900 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1042 history records