Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
31 0x31dc…cd45 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$195 (+31%) realized +$216 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +65% what you keep after slip
Net edge+65%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$83
14 days+$154
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$70
politics 21% −$34
other 6% $0
crypto 3% +$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+71.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 44% -26.3%
≤30d 21 +90.0% +71.9% 48% 43% -5.4%
≤90d 21 +90.0% +71.9% 48% 43% -5.4%
all 21 +90.0% +71.9% 48% 43% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +71.9% 43% -5.4%
10% +55.5% 43% -14.5%
15% +40.5% 38% -22.7%
20% +26.7% 33% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +192% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$14 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$216
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage11d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Nemesis 70¢ 62¢ $165 $144 −$21 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $142 −$33 -23%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $17 −$17 -99%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $10 +$16 +168%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $7 −$7 -99%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$6 +59%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$10 +145%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 −$7 -26%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $4 +$6 +145%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $19 +$13 +64%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $14 +$5 +35%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $135 −$34 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$5 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$242 +4529%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 57¢ $42 52m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 68¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 70¢ $166 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 47¢ $67 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 62¢ $91 3h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 59¢ $17 9h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 45¢ $15 12h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $26 13h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 37¢ $10 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 69¢ $7 17h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $16 18h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 62¢ $10 19h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 65¢ $17 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $21 32h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $28 33h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $10 36h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 40¢ $4 37h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $32 44h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 60¢ $19 46h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $19 2d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 73¢ $14 2d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner SELL Game Master 100¢ $14 2d
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 70¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 72¢ $10 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.24 · official $144.24 (match) · 53 history records