Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31e1…96d9 crypto 1675 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (226 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$682 (+7%) realized +$680 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate69%1124W / 498L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day226.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,117
7 days−$1,610
14 days−$1,104
30 days−$1,104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$1,286
other 3% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (226 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1165 -1.0% -10.5% 69% 67% -30.5%
≤30d 1622 +2.9% -6.9% 69% 68% -18.5%
≤90d 1622 +2.9% -6.9% 69% 68% -18.5%
all 1622 +2.9% -6.9% 69% 68% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover226.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 68% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 64% -26.3%
15% -24.0% 47% -33.5%
20% -31.4% 29% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$680
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1124 / 498
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1622 / 1675
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day226.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1622 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $0 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $7 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.62 · official $21.62 (match) · 3500 history records