Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
31 0x31e1…5bd3 crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$843 (+17%) realized +$839 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%35W / 51L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$540
7 days+$539
14 days+$505
30 days+$505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$252
sports 27% +$1,228
other 13% −$279
world 0% +$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.9% -14.0% 36% 36% +54.2%
≤30d 20 -9.3% -18.0% 35% 30% +42.7%
≤90d 86 -9.6% -18.2% 41% 37% +4.5%
all 86 -9.6% -18.2% 41% 37% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 37% +4.5%
10% -26.0% 35% -5.5%
15% -33.2% 33% -14.6%
20% -39.7% 33% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$37 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$839
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses35 / 51
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage82d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $93 +$91 +97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $63 −$62 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$180 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $51 +$45 +89%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $296 +$276 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $7 −$4 -60%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 07 $8 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $31 −$25 -79%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 05 $13 +$18 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 11 $28 +$28 +100%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 11 $245 +$331 +135%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 11 $60 +$185 +308%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $288 −$285 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 11 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 11 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 11 $60 −$8 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 11 $60 −$35 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 11 $115 −$14 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 11 $60 −$57 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 11 $90 −$87 -97%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $250 +$296 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 10 $45 −$42 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 10 $82 −$79 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 10 $60 −$29 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 10 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 10 $10 +$14 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 10 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 10 $25 +$29 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 10 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 10 $20 +$16 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 10 $40 +$21 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 10 $100 +$105 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 10 $30 +$44 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 10 $35 −$33 -94%
West Ham United FC leading at halftime? Apr 10 $112 +$151 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 10 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 10 $50 +$32 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 10 $60 +$49 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 10 $31 +$30 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $93 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $63 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 12¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $173 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $23 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $36 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $7 11h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $96 12h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $51 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $7 25h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $296 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $7 31h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.58 · official $56.58 (match) · 211 history records