Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31e7…4de5 crypto 1705 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (130 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$296 (-4%) realized −$296 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%905W / 499L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day129.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,377
7 days−$670
14 days+$153
30 days+$1,431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,089
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (130 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 731 -22.4% -29.8% 40% 40% -30.0%
≤30d 1404 +21.7% +10.1% 64% 64% +11.6%
≤90d 1404 +21.7% +10.1% 64% 64% +11.6%
all 1404 +21.7% +10.1% 64% 64% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover129.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.1% 64% +11.6%
10% ← realistic here -0.4% 64% +0.9%
15% -10.1% 64% -8.8%
20% -18.9% 64% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$296
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses905 / 499
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1404 / 1705
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day129.8
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1404 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records