Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
31 0x31e9…61c5 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 391d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$64 (+16%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate67%20W / 10L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$15
world 7% +$31
crypto 5% +$1
politics 5% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +14.2% +3.3% 83% 72% -4.1%
≤30d 18 +14.2% +3.3% 83% 72% -4.1%
≤90d 29 +4.5% -5.5% 66% 59% +2.3%
all 30 +11.1% +0.5% 67% 60% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 60% +7.5%
10% -9.1% 37% -2.8%
15% -17.9% 33% -12.2%
20% -25.9% 23% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

391d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage391d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 23 $20 $0 -1%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 +$10 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 22 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 06 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 13 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? Apr 13 $9 +$14 +150%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 13 $10 +$28 +285%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 19 $10 +$20 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $37 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 88¢ $5 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 25h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 43h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $20 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 4d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $33 4d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 1¢ $3 46d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 51d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 9¢ $2 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 51d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $20 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.49 · official $71.49 (match) · 65 history records