Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:59:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31eb…c9eb crypto 1188 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (130 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$440 (-1%) realized −$440 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate75%888W / 303L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day130.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days−$114
14 days−$245
30 days−$694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$545
finance 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (130 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -5.5% -14.5% 86% 20% -11.7%
≤30d 1191 -3.6% -12.8% 75% 32% -10.8%
≤90d 1191 -3.6% -12.8% 75% 32% -10.8%
all 1191 -3.6% -12.8% 75% 32% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 32% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 23% -19.3%
15% -28.8% 14% -27.1%
20% -35.8% 9% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses888 / 303
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1191 / 1188
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day130.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Down 99¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$28 -205%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$34 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$57 -1137%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$26 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $11 +$5 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $60 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $13 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $18 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 100¢ $9 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 100¢ $1 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 100¢ $20 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.97 · official $69.97 (match) · 3500 history records