Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31ed…d18c crypto 1270 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$515 (-7%) realized −$542 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%773W / 496L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day52.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$6
14 days−$116
30 days−$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$462
other 4% −$78
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +134.3% +112.0% 23% 23% -6.0%
≤30d 886 -7.5% -16.3% 62% 62% -18.4%
≤90d 1269 -7.1% -15.9% 61% 57% -16.6%
all 1269 -7.1% -15.9% 61% 57% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 57% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 52% -24.6%
15% -31.3% 36% -31.9%
20% -38.1% 14% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$542
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses773 / 496
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1269 / 1270
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 19¢ $1 $28 +$27 (+2564%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $7 +$14 +187%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $4 +$58 +1338%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $5 +$60 +1222%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 21 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $7 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 50m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $62 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $34 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 31h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 31h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 31h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 31h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 6d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $6 6d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.98 · official $27.98 (match) · 3500 history records