Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31ee…8c8e crypto 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$299 (-11%) realized −$299 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%108W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$47
14 days−$53
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$391
sports 4% −$30
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.4% -26.1% 50% 42% -21.7%
≤30d 20 -25.7% -32.8% 50% 30% -22.6%
≤90d 104 -13.8% -22.0% 59% 42% -24.0%
all 187 -10.0% -18.6% 58% 45% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 45% -23.9%
10% -26.4% 29% -31.2%
15% -33.5% 15% -37.8%
20% -40.0% 8% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses108 / 79
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)187 / 187
History coverage111d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 187 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$30 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $37 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $125 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $12 −$11 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $28 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 22 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 22 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 22 $4 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 22 $7 −$5 -72%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $18 −$10 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 19 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +48%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $8 −$6 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 13 $8 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 13 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 13 $17 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 13 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 13 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 13 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 13 $4 −$3 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 13 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 13 $14 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $24 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 801 history records