Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31f1…40e3 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-9%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% $0
world 32% $0
sports 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -13.6% -21.8% 45% 45% -18.4%
≤30d 11 -13.6% -21.8% 45% 45% -18.4%
≤90d 11 -13.6% -21.8% 45% 45% -18.4%
all 11 -13.6% -21.8% 45% 45% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 45% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 27% -26.2%
15% -36.1% 27% -33.3%
20% -42.4% 27% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +69%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +122%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 -45%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $0 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $0 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.83 · official $6.83 (match) · 35 history records