Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31f1…5903 crypto 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2437 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,381 (+29%) realized +$4,384 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%126W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day2437.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$866
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2437 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 296 -20.0% -27.6% 43% 34% -14.3%
≤30d 296 -20.0% -27.6% 43% 34% -14.3%
≤90d 296 -20.0% -27.6% 43% 34% -14.3%
all 296 -20.0% -27.6% 43% 34% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2437.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 34% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 24% -22.5%
15% -40.9% 17% -30.0%
20% -46.7% 10% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$20 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,448
Realized+$4,384
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses126 / 170
Open positions2
Markets (closed)296 / 232
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day2437.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 15¢ 34¢ $7 $15 +$8 (+123%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Down 62¢ 32¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Down 89¢ 66¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-25%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 61¢ 68¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $217 −$217 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $442 −$442 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +127%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $12 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,447.89 · official $1,445.71 (match) · 3500 history records