Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:22:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31f7…eca9 crypto 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$621 (-3%) realized −$621 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$404per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$60
14 days−$2
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$467
other 2% −$178
sports 1% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +333.9% +292.6% 20% 20% +31.6%
≤30d 14 +121.2% +100.2% 36% 36% -16.1%
≤90d 40 +26.1% +14.0% 50% 28% -11.8%
all 45 +13.9% +3.1% 44% 24% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 24% -12.2%
10% -6.8% 13% -20.6%
15% -15.8% 9% -28.3%
20% -24.0% 9% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$609) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$103 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$621
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage96d
Avg bet$404
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 −$3 -6%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a Jun 21 $5 +$96 +1861%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$15 -75%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$46 +112%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Apr 29 $0 $0 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on April 7? Apr 28 $838 −$553 -66%
Will Club Santos Laguna win on 2026-04-04? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 1? Apr 07 $609 −$609 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $661 +$64 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $266 +$15 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $984 +$257 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $287 +$13 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $1,936 −$761 -39%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $223 +$7 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $1,106 +$101 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 28? Mar 30 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $753 −$69 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $2,523 +$334 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $482 +$15 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $955 +$70 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 28 $3,224 +$615 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $1,185 +$205 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $621 −$10 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $528 +$69 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $602 +$54 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on March 23? Mar 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $67 −$52 -78%
Will FC Juárez win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $5 −$3 -64%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $5 −$4 -73%
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $38 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $24 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a SELL 97¢ $101 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a BUY 5¢ $5 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $60 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $66 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 39¢ $20 8d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $63 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 9d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 64¢ $22 10d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? AND Will Morocco win on BUY 9¢ $10 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 10d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 28d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 28d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 28d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 38d
Will Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 50d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY No 88¢ $4 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 241 history records