Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31fa…a8f4 sports 857 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%544W / 306L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$63
14 days−$59
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$56
other 2% +$90
crypto 1% −$34
politics 0% −$4
world 0% +$6
tech 0% +$9
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +25.8% +13.9% 52% 50% -1.5%
≤30d 179 +2.5% -7.2% 59% 47% -7.5%
≤90d 843 +0.3% -9.3% 64% 51% -8.8%
all 850 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 50% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 50% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 35% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 26% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 19% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses544 / 306
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions2
Markets (closed)850 / 857
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 850 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $6 $16 +$10 (+163%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele Jun 17 $84 −$4 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -54%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 +$135 +874%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +72%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $38 +$6 +15%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $16 −$13 -79%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $5 −$3 -61%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $103 −$6 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$13 +63%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$5 +32%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-1 Jun 14 $1 +$3 +274%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $23 +$7 +30%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$5 -47%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 −$15 -72%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $5 +$17 +332%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $14 +$6 +48%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $19 +$11 +57%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $17 +$3 +18%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$4 -80%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +64%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $8 +$2 +33%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $28 −$10 -36%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $41 +$9 +22%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $54 −$43 -79%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $8 +$2 +33%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $17 −$15 -89%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $16 +$5 +33%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $88 −$1 -1%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $29 +$4 +14%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $96 +$14 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele SELL No 3¢ $5 31m
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele BUY No 4¢ $1 39m
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele BUY No 5¢ $1 43m
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele BUY No 5¢ $0 43m
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele BUY No 5¢ $1 43m
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele BUY No 5¢ $1 43m
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele BUY No 5¢ $1 43m
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele BUY No 6¢ $1 43m
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele BUY No 6¢ $1 43m
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele BUY No 6¢ $1 43m
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele SELL Yes 93¢ $74 1h
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele BUY Yes 94¢ $76 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 12¢ $0 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 95¢ $28 18h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 64¢ $10 19h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 63¢ $10 19h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 19h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 46¢ $5 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 57¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 77¢ $10 32h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 22¢ $2 38h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 54¢ $5 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $3 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $5 40h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 98¢ $18 41h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 95¢ $28 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.76 · official $26.76 (match) · 3500 history records