Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:47:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x31fb…6122 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$25 (-2%) realized +$2 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%13W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$84
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$78
sports 11% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -4.9% -14.0% 24% 24% +18.6%
≤30d 65 -15.4% -23.5% 20% 20% -10.2%
≤90d 65 -15.4% -23.5% 20% 20% -10.2%
all 65 -15.4% -23.5% 20% 20% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 20% -10.2%
10% -30.8% 17% -18.8%
15% -37.5% 17% -26.7%
20% -43.6% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$6 · ×3.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses13 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)65 / 72
History coverage16d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $148 $121 −$28 (-19%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $63 $57 −$6 (-10%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $34 $47 +$13 (+39%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+5%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-20%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $10 −$7 -65%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$3 -34%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $19 +$3 +15%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $55 +$27 +49%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $3 +$3 +111%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $39 +$8 +19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $12 +$8 +69%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $12 −$6 -47%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$40 +776%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 +$81 +976%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $47 54m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $49 54m
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 16¢ $4 56m
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 4¢ $22 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 81¢ $82 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 4h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $43 9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 58¢ $57 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $19 16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 16h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $12 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 17h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 43¢ $10 17h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 3¢ $12 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $39 20h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 23h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 32h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $22 32h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 32h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 32h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 32h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.71 · official $354.71 (match) · 150 history records