Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x31fc…ff08 crypto 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$265 (+9%) realized +$265 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%55W / 54L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$112
14 days+$251
30 days+$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$205
sports 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.9% -1.5% 50% 45% -27.4%
≤30d 64 +17.0% +5.8% 50% 48% +1.0%
≤90d 64 +17.0% +5.8% 50% 48% +1.0%
all 109 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 48% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 48% -3.9%
10% -12.4% 47% -13.1%
15% -20.8% 43% -21.5%
20% -28.6% 39% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$24 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses55 / 54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage169d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$33 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$8 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $51 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $27 +$25 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $24 +$36 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $56 +$53 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$12 +382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $24 +$21 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$40 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$27 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$15 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $52 +$35 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $41 +$23 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $40 +$42 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $23 −$12 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $83 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $71 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $61 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $56 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 221 history records