Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3201…27a4 sports 422 markets active 4d ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,378 (-2%) realized −$1,378 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate85%360W / 62L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$328est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$59
14 days−$423
30 days−$2,195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,660
other 2% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -3.1% -12.3% 76% 16% -12.4%
≤30d 161 -4.3% -13.4% 82% 17% -15.3%
≤90d 422 -0.4% -9.9% 85% 23% -11.6%
all 422 -0.4% -9.9% 85% 23% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 23% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 5% -20.1%
15% -26.4% 1% -27.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$96 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,378
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses360 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$328
Open positions0
Markets (closed)422 / 422
History coverage38d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 422 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $96 −$69 -72%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $46 +$4 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $46 +$4 +9%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $46 $0 -1%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $48 +$2 +5%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $135 −$25 -19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $161 +$10 +6%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $40 +$10 +24%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $47 +$3 +6%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $45 +$5 +11%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $44 +$6 +14%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $46 +$4 +10%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $49 +$1 +3%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $47 +$3 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $47 +$3 +7%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $106 −$2 -2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $190 +$10 +5%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $57 −$29 -51%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $46 +$4 +8%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $131 +$19 +15%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $92 −$31 -33%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $48 +$2 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $48 −$48 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $48 −$48 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $47 +$3 +6%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Timofey Skatov Jun 09 $94 +$6 +6%
Bratislava: Hynek Barton vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 09 $48 +$2 +5%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $48 +$2 +5%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $95 +$5 +5%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $86 −$86 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $97 −$97 -100%
Foggia: Laura Mair vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 04 $97 +$3 +3%
Makarska: Simona Waltert vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 04 $88 +$12 +14%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Dominika Salkova Jun 04 $78 −$27 -35%
Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 04 $275 −$101 -37%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Erika Andreeva Jun 04 $193 +$7 +4%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Kayla Day Jun 04 $94 +$6 +6%
Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $142 +$8 +6%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 04 $92 +$8 +8%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 04 $93 +$7 +7%
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic Jun 04 $93 +$7 +8%
Foggia: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 04 $92 −$92 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $234 −$234 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $90 −$90 -100%
Birmingham: Elvina Kalieva vs Talia Gibson Jun 01 $39 +$11 +27%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $96 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 95¢ $95 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston SELL Antonia Ruzic 27¢ $27 4d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa SELL Tessa Brockmann 81¢ $40 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Martin Landaluce 90¢ $30 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Martin Landaluce 90¢ $4 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Martin Landaluce 90¢ $11 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 94¢ $47 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 97¢ $11 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman BUY Zeynep Sonmez 92¢ $46 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 97¢ $32 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 97¢ $6 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Martin Landaluce 91¢ $46 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 92¢ $46 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Katie Volynets 95¢ $1 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Katie Volynets 95¢ $46 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 93¢ $46 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Katie Volynets 93¢ $46 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 86¢ $43 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Kimberly Birrell 33¢ $16 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 95¢ $17 4d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 95¢ $30 4d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 91¢ $46 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 92¢ $90 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 92¢ $2 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $44 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 83¢ $42 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 67¢ $33 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 58¢ $29 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 17¢ $0 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 17¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1432 history records