Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
32 0x320b…1727 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$762 (-18%) realized −$762 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$11
14 days−$205
30 days−$790
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$668
sports 40% −$123
crypto 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.5% -7.3% 75% 25% -8.5%
≤30d 19 -15.3% -23.3% 63% 32% -26.8%
≤90d 19 -15.3% -23.3% 63% 32% -26.8%
all 19 -15.3% -23.3% 63% 32% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 32% -26.8%
10% -30.7% 16% -33.8%
15% -37.4% 16% -40.2%
20% -43.5% 0% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$163 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$762
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage17d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $302 −$9 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $150 +$18 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$83 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $200 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$25 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $684 −$505 -74%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $96 +$9 +10%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $404 +$175 +43%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $293 −$291 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $300 −$8 -2%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 12 $326 −$326 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $300 +$15 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $100 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 74¢ $294 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $302 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $201 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $4 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 8d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $177 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $179 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $684 13d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $579 13d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 13d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $96 14d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 69¢ $404 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $293 15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $293 15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $300 15d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 93¢ $326 16d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 16d
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) SELL Czechia 100¢ $315 16d
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) BUY Czechia 95¢ $300 16d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 17d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY Mexico 100¢ $100 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records