Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x320e…0eaa other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate42%44W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$5
world 25% −$14
other 23% +$1
economics 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% +$4
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.3% -14.3% 25% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 12 -3.5% -12.7% 25% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 22 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 106 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses44 / 62
Open positions3
Markets (closed)106 / 109
History coverage466d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $157 −$2 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $13 −$2 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $154 +$7 +5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $42 −$14 -34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $98 −$4 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $107 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $106 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $85 +$3 +4%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $163 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $35 +$4 +10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 14 $226 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $592 +$1 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $650 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $114 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $651 −$1 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jul 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 09 $3 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $51 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $68 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $4 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $74 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $7 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $75 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $80 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $12 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $4 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $70 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $18 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $88 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $66 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $74 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $24 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $45 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.57 · official $50.65 (match) · 317 history records