Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
32 0x3210…ce2c crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$270 (+46%) realized +$295 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$249
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +46.9% +32.9% 75% 75% +51.2%
≤30d 25 +31.0% +18.5% 64% 64% +34.7%
≤90d 25 +31.0% +18.5% 64% 64% +34.7%
all 25 +31.0% +18.5% 64% 64% +34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.5% 64% +34.7%
10% +7.2% 60% +21.8%
15% -3.2% 60% +10.1%
20% -12.7% 60% -0.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$11 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$295
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage10d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$31 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$57 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$45 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $13 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$14 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 09 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$17 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$8 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 40h
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 9? SELL Down 67¢ $15 9d
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 56¢ $13 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $12 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 56 history records