Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
32 0x3211…bcf7 other 289 markets active 17h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$188 (+2%) realized +$192 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%170W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$87
14 days−$273
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$650
sports 36% −$491
world 3% +$9
crypto 2% −$3
finance 1% +$43
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 +5.6% -4.5% 63% 51% -7.2%
≤30d 199 +0.2% -9.4% 57% 48% -12.9%
≤90d 244 +5.4% -4.6% 60% 52% -7.7%
all 279 +4.7% -5.2% 61% 50% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 50% -7.6%
10% -14.3% 36% -16.4%
15% -22.6% 27% -24.5%
20% -30.2% 21% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$24 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized+$192
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses170 / 109
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions10
Markets (closed)279 / 289
History coverage225d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? No 95¢ 94¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? No 90¢ 90¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? No 90¢ 88¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 56¢ $37 $36 −$2 (-4%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? No 58¢ 57¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 36¢ 38¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 36¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) DR Congo 65¢ 62¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Colombia leading at halftime? No 55¢ 52¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 $0 -2%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $21 +$21 +97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $36 +$5 +13%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $22 −$1 -2%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $19 +$23 +119%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $11 +$10 +90%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $37 +$4 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 +$17 +442%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $8 +$13 +152%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $38 +$3 +8%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $13 +$8 +62%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $13 −$13 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $15 −$14 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -99%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $39 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $37 +$4 +11%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $39 +$2 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 +$6 +36%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $16 +$5 +29%
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $12 +$9 +70%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $37 +$4 +11%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $38 +$3 +8%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $38 +$16 +42%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $16 +$5 +27%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $30 +$12 +42%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $37 +$4 +11%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $33 +$9 +28%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $32 +$10 +30%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $36 +$5 +13%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $21 $0 -2%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $37 +$4 +10%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $25 +$17 +70%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $22 −$1 -2%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $22 −$1 -2%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $28 −$28 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $33 −$32 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $22 +$41 +191%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $13 +$8 +67%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $112 +$11 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 +$14 +197%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $11 +$10 +93%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +105%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $38 +$3 +8%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $13 +$8 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY No 92¢ $38 16h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $13 16h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $8 16h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 62¢ $13 16h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY No 69¢ $15 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $4 16h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $37 16h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $13 16h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $9 16h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $8 16h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $12 16h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $16 16h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 90¢ $37 16h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $11 16h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 16h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 41¢ $9 16h
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $13 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $14 16h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 95¢ $39 16h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $13 16h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $12 16h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 65¢ $14 16h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $12 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $8 16h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 88¢ $36 16h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $11 16h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 16h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 60¢ $13 16h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $11 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 35¢ $7 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.15 · official $275.15 (match) · 691 history records