Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3215…8819 politics 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%32W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$20
other 25% −$16
sports 22% −$11
crypto 9% −$2
culture 6% −$2
world 4% −$2
economics 2% −$3
finance 2% −$3
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 90 -0.4% -9.9% 18% 0% -9.8%
all 179 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses32 / 147
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)179 / 180
History coverage165d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $62 −$1 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $54 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 14 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $330 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $170 −$6 -4%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $139 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $328 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 11 $47 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $336 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 09 $131 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 08 $62 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 08 $67 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 08 $151 −$2 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $41 $0 -1%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $45 −$1 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $136 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $161 −$3 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $106 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 05 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $183 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $187 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $147 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 01 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $92 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $252 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 28 $318 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $127 +$3 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $315 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $248 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $182 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 20 $100 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $62 12d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $62 12d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 90¢ $53 19d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $8 19d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $46 19d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $53 31d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $54 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL No 94¢ $43 40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY No 96¢ $44 40d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $36 40d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $36 40d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 88¢ $58 40d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $64 41d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 41d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 41d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 97¢ $60 41d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 97¢ $60 41d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $38 41d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $38 41d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $51 41d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $51 42d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $53 42d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $54 42d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 42d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 42d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $47 42d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $47 43d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $48 43d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $49 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.96 · official $56.96 (match) · 766 history records