Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

32 0x3216…5cad other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$69 (+22%) realized +$69 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +111% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +84% what you keep after slip

Net edge+84%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%10W / 11L

Drawdown62%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day5.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$39

7 days+$106

14 days+$153

30 days+$153

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)+91.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+41.0%	+27.6%	45%	45%	+24.6%
≤30d	21	+111.4%	+91.3%	48%	48%	+39.1%
≤90d	21	+111.4%	+91.3%	48%	48%	+39.1%
all	21	+111.4%	+91.3%	48%	48%	+39.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+91.3%	48%	+39.1%
10%	+73.0%	48%	+25.8%
15%	+56.2%	48%	+13.6%
20%	+40.9%	43%	+2.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +111% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +226% → late +7% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$30 vs −$13 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$10

Realized+$69

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses10 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 23

History coverage7d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day5.2

Drawdown62%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	20¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$26	+$64	+252%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 20	$15	−$15	-98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 18	$20	+$12	+59%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$8	−$8	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	Jun 17	$29	+$70	+243%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 15	$30	−$30	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$2	+37%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$15	+$14	+90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$23	+$10	+45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$2	-33%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan?	Jun 14	$7	+$20	+282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$25	+$42	+165%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$14	+272%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$4	−$2	-45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1	$0	-17%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$3	+$47	+1519%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$90	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	37¢	$20	3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	21¢	$15	5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	41¢	$10	6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	SELL Aurora Gaming	100¢	$32	2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Aurora Gaming	62¢	$20	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	16¢	$8	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	BUY	29¢	$29	4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	31¢	$51	5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	35¢	$15	5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	45¢	$30	5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$7	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$5	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL	96¢	$29	5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	8¢	$3	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Down	53¢	$3	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$5	6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	77¢	$33	6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan?	SELL Yes	40¢	$27	6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$20	6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	10¢	$7	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner	BUY Curaçao	19¢	$5	6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY	50¢	$15	6d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	37¢	$25	6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$19	6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	15¢	$2	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.35 · official $10.35 (match) · 40 history records