Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3218…dca3 world 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%41W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$5
other 28% +$20
politics 16% −$1
sports 13% +$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% −$25
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 26% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 4% -9.8%
all 121 +0.0% -9.5% 34% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses41 / 80
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)121 / 124
History coverage273d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $51 $49 −$3 (-5%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 88¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $81 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $4 $0 -6%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 +9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $325 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $67 −$2 -3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $75 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $75 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $75 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $75 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $246 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $15 −$1 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $77 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $396 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $83 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $86 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $32 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $96 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $172 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $22 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $87 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $35 +$3 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $45 −$4 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $31 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $83 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $57 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $101 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $4 $0 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $121 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 20 $2 +$1 +39%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $71 +$8 +12%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $70 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $69 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $70 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $189 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $72 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $168 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $209 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $140 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $4 $0 +5%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $69 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $82 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $81 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 21h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 40h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 46h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $74 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $74 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $74 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $74 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $65 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 97¢ $67 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $8 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $68 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $75 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $45 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $30 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $27 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $48 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $69 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $75 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $75 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $68 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $12 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $12 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.55 · official $47.42 · 560 history records