Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:49:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

32 0x321e…4a0a other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$65 (-11%) realized −$69 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%7W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$38per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit19%portable

Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$25

7 days−$27

14 days−$40

30 days−$40

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)-0.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+19.9%	+8.5%	64%	64%	-15.3%
≤30d	12	+9.9%	-0.6%	58%	58%	-17.9%
≤90d	12	+9.9%	-0.6%	58%	58%	-17.9%
all	12	+9.9%	-0.6%	58%	58%	-17.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.6%	58%	-17.9%
10%	-10.1%	58%	-25.7%
15%	-18.8%	58%	-32.9%
20%	-26.7%	58%	-39.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +26% → late -6% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$45 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.82 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$34

Realized−$69

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses7 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)12 / 16

History coverage8d

Avg bet$38

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	56¢	64¢	$30	$34	+$4 (+13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$40	−$40	-99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$41	+$43	+105%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$31	+$22	+70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$31	−$31	-99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$30	+$27	+90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$41	−$40	-98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$16	+$15	+93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$42	+$40	+97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$20	+$19	+93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$25	+$18	+70%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$13	−$13	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	56¢	$30	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	48¢	$76	9h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5	BUY Over	68¢	$40	20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	48¢	$41	23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	58¢	$31	27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-	BUY	30¢	$36	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	51¢	$31	3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	52¢	$30	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	51¢	$16	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	50¢	$42	5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	80¢	$101	6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	58¢	$25	7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$20	7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	60¢	$13	7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY	39¢	$41	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.02 · official $109.02 · 24 history records