Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x321e…80fe other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$984 (-12%) realized −$651 · open −$333
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%14W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1,935
world 33% +$2,565
politics 14% −$324
sports 13% −$1,060
tech 1% −$104
economics 1% $0
weather 1% −$87
culture 0% −$33
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +192.8% +164.9% 100% 100% +164.9%
≤90d 1 +192.8% +164.9% 100% 100% +164.9%
all 59 -17.0% -24.9% 24% 19% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 19% -17.4%
10% -32.1% 17% -25.3%
15% -38.6% 15% -32.5%
20% -44.7% 15% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +193% too few recent
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$223 vs −$86 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$651
Unrealized−$333
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses14 / 45
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage174d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $250 $243 −$7 (-3%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $290 $58 −$232 (-80%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $205 +$395 +193%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea Mar 07 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Tom Lee charged by December 31? Feb 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Jan 30 $159 −$118 -74%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 29 $238 −$68 -28%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 29 $523 −$256 -49%
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company duri Jan 29 $250 −$249 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Jan 29 $113 +$5 +5%
Will Trump say "Greenland" during remarks on January 28? Jan 28 $371 −$371 -100%
Will the US strike Syria next? Jan 26 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 26 $37 +$43 +116%
Will Trump say "World Peace" this week? (February 1) Jan 26 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jan 26 $26 −$2 -8%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Jan 26 $137 −$41 -30%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Norway by Feburary 1 Jan 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jan 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jan 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Germany by Feburary Jan 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for The Netherlands by F Jan 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Sweden by Feburary 1 Jan 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jan 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? Jan 22 $393 +$1,636 +416%
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? Jan 21 $10 −$10 -100%
GPT ads by March 31? Jan 21 $18 $0 -2%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jan 21 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 0–5 years in prison? Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 21 $100 +$142 +142%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 21 $250 +$450 +180%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum? Jan 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? Jan 20 $16 −$2 -12%
Will all of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? Jan 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? Jan 20 $100 −$17 -17%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for The United Kingdom b Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for France by Feburary 1 Jan 19 $17 −$11 -67%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Finland by Feburary Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary Jan 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will I Just Might - Bruno Mars be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jan 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trump and Robert Fico not shake hands? Jan 18 $2 +$29 +1251%
Will an FBI top ten most wanted fugitive be captured by June 2026? Jan 18 $230 −$230 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 18 $100 +$117 +117%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? Jan 18 $11 +$2 +13%
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison? Jan 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in January? Jan 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will SpaceX have 12 or more launches in January? Jan 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will SpaceX have exactly 8 launches in January? Jan 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX have exactly 9 launches in January? Jan 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in January? Jan 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jan 17 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $256 1h
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 34¢ $170 35d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 34¢ $35 35d
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea BUY South Korea 20¢ $222 113d
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea BUY South Korea 20¢ $0 113d
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea BUY South Korea 20¢ $100 113d
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea BUY South Korea 20¢ $500 113d
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea BUY South Korea 20¢ $6 113d
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea BUY South Korea 20¢ $22 113d
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. South Korea BUY South Korea 9¢ $200 113d
Tom Lee charged by December 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 132d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 19¢ $141 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 20¢ $87 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 144d
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.03 · official $301.03 (match) · 285 history records