Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:41:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x321f…91b3 other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%53W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$13
14 days+$10
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$7
other 26% −$9
politics 15% $0
sports 14% −$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% −$1
weather 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +3.7% -6.2% 43% 14% -8.3%
≤30d 31 +65.7% +49.9% 39% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 82 +55.2% +40.5% 34% 6% -9.6%
all 134 +32.9% +20.3% 40% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.3% 4% -9.6%
10% +8.8% 3% -18.2%
15% -1.7% 3% -26.1%
20% -11.4% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses53 / 81
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage460d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 53¢ 50¢ $101 $96 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $60 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $199 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $190 −$1 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $75 +$11 +14%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $89 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $58 −$2 -4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $8 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $82 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $96 +$2 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $28 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $100 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $358 −$2 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $69 −$4 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $119 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $181 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $73 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $100 +$5 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $287 −$7 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $96 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $99 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $6 $0 +5%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $196 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $103 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $102 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $1 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $97 −$1 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 18 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $9 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $120 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $193 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $353 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $140 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $121 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $98 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $107 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $206 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 53¢ $47 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 53¢ $54 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $60 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $60 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $101 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $3 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $98 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $78 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $22 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $100 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $85 34h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $75 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 73¢ $91 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 72¢ $89 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $27 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $27 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $58 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $82 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $82 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.58 · official $96.45 (match) · 553 history records