Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
32 0x3221…166a other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5,965 (-17%) realized −$5,373 · open −$592
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,799per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$708now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$778
7 days−$6,494
14 days−$6,494
30 days−$6,494
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$7,946
sports 13% +$1,297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +16.7% +5.5% 50% 50% -30.5%
≤30d 14 +16.7% +5.5% 50% 50% -30.5%
≤90d 14 +16.7% +5.5% 50% 50% -30.5%
all 15 +29.8% +17.5% 53% 53% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.5% 53% -28.9%
10% +6.2% 47% -35.7%
15% -4.0% 40% -41.9%
20% -13.5% 40% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$640 vs −$1,597 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$708
Realized−$5,373
Unrealized−$592
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage189d
Avg bet$1,799
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 32¢ $500 $322 −$178 (-36%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 36¢ $300 $196 −$104 (-35%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 22¢ $500 $191 −$309 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $304 −$251 -83%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $103 −$21 -21%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,086 +$316 +29%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $205 −$200 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 26 $77 −$77 -100%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 26 $77 +$340 +442%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1,619 +$1,004 +62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $334 +$265 +80%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3,254 −$599 -18%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $822 +$617 +75%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 25 $613 −$28 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,011 +$552 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10,060 −$10,000 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10,053 +$1,588 +16%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $205 +$438 +214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $304 44m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 1h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $48 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $45 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 1¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,397 1h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $304 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 10¢ $77 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,009 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $205 28h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $77 46h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $77 46h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $1,619 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $128 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 12¢ $129 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $300 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $296 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 70¢ $919 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,019 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 37¢ $1,512 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,438 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $274 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $707.78 · official $3,707.78 · 52 history records