Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:59:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3226…3bd6 other 273 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 262L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$42
sports 28% −$26
politics 9% −$7
culture 6% −$8
economics 5% −$3
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 188 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 273 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)273 / 273
History coverage141d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 273 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $499 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $288 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $451 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $509 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $163 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $297 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $278 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $195 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $305 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $149 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $331 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $401 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $118 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $139 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $330 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $247 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $382 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $136 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 03 $547 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $334 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $247 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 3h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 11h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 12h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 19h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 21h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 23h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 25h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 32h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 33h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 35h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 36h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $57 41h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 43h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 44h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 45h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $58 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $59 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $59 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1522 history records