Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:14:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3229…4299 sports 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$241 (-10%) realized −$235 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%55W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$391
14 days−$364
30 days−$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$253
sports 45% +$32
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -57.9% -61.9% 21% 21% -77.1%
≤30d 56 -46.8% -51.9% 29% 29% -56.5%
≤90d 120 -11.2% -19.7% 42% 40% -24.9%
all 126 -8.0% -16.8% 44% 41% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 41% -18.2%
10% -24.7% 39% -26.1%
15% -32.0% 35% -33.2%
20% -38.7% 30% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses55 / 71
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)126 / 129
History coverage95d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists Yes 18¢ 50¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+185%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +103%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 +$5 +70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +59%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +58%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-26? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Unión vs. CA Newell's Old Boys end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-05-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Talleres vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-21? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-03-06? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-03-08? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-26? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. CA Rosario Central end in Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
CA River Plate vs. CA Boca Juniors: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Unión win on 2026-04-17? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-04-26? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-26? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CD Riestra vs. CA Independiente end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-04-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-04-09? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Jun 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $51 +$27 +54%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $5 +$5 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $5 7m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 9m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $18 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $18 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $5 6h
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 19h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 21h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $5 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $5 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $8 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 26h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $8 26h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 26h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 93¢ $16 27h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $5 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $5 46h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $5 46h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 47h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.47 · official $26.47 (match) · 266 history records