Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:01:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x322a…9a51 crypto 197 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$73 (+2%) realized +$77 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%78W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$16
14 days+$25
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$106
sports 2% +$86
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -10.4% -18.9% 40% 40% -13.3%
≤30d 102 -5.0% -14.0% 40% 39% -3.6%
≤90d 195 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 38% -9.9%
all 195 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 38% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 38% -9.9%
10% -16.6% 36% -18.6%
15% -24.7% 33% -26.4%
20% -32.0% 28% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$77
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses78 / 117
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)195 / 197
History coverage67d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $24 +$6 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$13 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$8 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$18 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$2 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$7 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$15 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$11 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$6 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$9 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11 +$8 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$7 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $46 +$20 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$1 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$20 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$4 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $22 +$12 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$10 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$18 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$15 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $26 +$59 +233%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $34 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $17 +$5 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $19 +$8 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$10 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$14 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$3 -45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $13 −$2 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$8 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $40 −$14 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$5 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $13 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $25 −$4 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$23 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$13 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $12 +$23 +194%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $29 +$35 +120%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$2 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $28 +$21 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $31 +$32 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $17 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $13 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $21 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $14 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $15 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $5 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $12 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $12 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $14 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $18 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $45 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.15 · official $26.15 (match) · 642 history records