Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

32 0x322f…ba1f other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,262 (+2%) realized +$1,893 · open −$631

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate21%3W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3,228per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$62est.

Kalshi-fit28%portable

Net worth$4,882now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$142

7 days−$22

14 days−$71

30 days−$71

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)-21.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	-18.7%	-26.4%	20%	20%	-9.9%
≤30d	11	-17.2%	-25.0%	18%	18%	-10.3%
≤90d	11	-17.2%	-25.0%	18%	18%	-10.3%
all	14	-13.2%	-21.4%	21%	21%	-8.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.4%	21%	-8.5%
10%	-29.0%	7%	-17.2%
15%	-35.8%	7%	-25.2%
20%	-42.1%	7%	-32.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 83% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -15% → late -12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$370 vs −$91 · ×4.06 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.11 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage

Net worth$4,882

Realized+$1,893

Unrealized−$631

Win rate (resolved)21%

Wins / losses3 / 11

Est. fees paid−$62

Open positions4

Markets (closed)14 / 18

History coverage272d

Avg bet$3,228

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$5,117	$4,407	−$710 (-14%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	48¢	$295	$304	+$9 (+3%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	Brazil	32¢	55¢	$100	$170	+$70 (+70%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$0	$0	+$0 (+12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$51	−$22	-43%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 20	$304	+$237	+78%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$3,545	+$686	+19%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$717	−$700	-98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 19	$103	−$13	-12%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 19	$102	−$8	-8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$102	−$17	-16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$301	−$1	-0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$506	−$20	-4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$168	−$164	-98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 11	$2,244	−$49	-2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 29?	Jan 29	$115	−$1	-1%
Over $20M committed to the Paystream raise on MetaDAO?	Jan 26	$900	+$186	+21%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?	Oct 06	$45	−$7	-15%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	SELL Yes	9¢	$29	41m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	SELL Brazil	94¢	$541	42m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	BUY Brazil	32¢	$102	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	15¢	$51	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	47¢	$202	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$771	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	83¢	$1,486	2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Brazil	52¢	$304	4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$508	4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$1,013	4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$202	10h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	19¢	$307	11h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco?	SELL Yes	12¢	$90	11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	19¢	$205	11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	19¢	$205	11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$304	11h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	26¢	$94	11h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	15¢	$86	11h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco?	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	14h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$102	14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	89¢	$300	15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	56¢	$1,105	15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	56¢	$868	15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	60¢	$486	22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$1,418	26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$301	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$608	26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$506	26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,881.76 · official $4,884.86 (match) · 126 history records