Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
32 0x3234…0284 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$224 (-8%) realized −$231 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,177
7 days+$1,157
14 days+$1,153
30 days+$932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$1,352
other 26% −$404
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +214.7% +184.7% 75% 75% +420.1%
≤30d 25 +5.0% -5.0% 36% 36% +37.7%
≤90d 25 +5.0% -5.0% 36% 36% +37.7%
all 25 +5.0% -5.0% 36% 36% +37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 36% +37.7%
10% -14.1% 36% +24.5%
15% -22.4% 36% +12.5%
20% -30.0% 28% +1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$55 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$231
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 37
History coverage27d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Yes 26¢ 30¢ $39 $46 +$7 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Bosnia and H Jun 25 $139 +$1,177 +845%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $34 +$16 +48%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$13 +66%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $121 −$5 -4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $243 −$240 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $120 +$123 +103%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $61 −$60 -99%
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $49 +$24 +49%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $62 +$98 +157%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $128 +$138 +107%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $101 −$99 -98%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $122 +$106 +87%
Will Norway vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 01 $102 −$78 -76%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? May 31 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $132 −$132 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $91 +$115 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $40 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a d BUY $30 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals AND Lamine Yamal: 1+ BUY $10 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1 BUY $120 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score A BUY $14 30h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score AND Will Korea Republic win on BUY 30¢ $102 47h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Bosnia and H BUY 10¢ $139 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Luis Díaz: 3+ shots AND BUY $149 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 94¢ $34 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $20 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 11d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Spread: Sweden (-2.5) AND Spread: France (- BUY $30 11d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'I BUY $103 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A BUY $154 13d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Spread: Swi BUY 11¢ $113 14d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States ( BUY $103 14d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States ( BUY $10 14d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $116 14d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $121 14d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 61¢ $243 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 95¢ $243 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $120 19d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes $2 19d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 40¢ $61 19d
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 19d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 19d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 53¢ $61 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.93 · official $190.43 · 52 history records