Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:07:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x3237…571e sports 360 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,245 (-15%) realized −$2,235 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%112W / 247L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days−$110
14 days+$74
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$2,031
crypto 30% −$326
other 1% −$62
world 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -23.5% -30.8% 36% 36% -23.4%
≤30d 72 -13.4% -21.6% 31% 29% -10.3%
≤90d 315 -14.4% -22.6% 32% 31% -24.2%
all 359 -13.7% -21.9% 31% 30% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 30% -23.9%
10% -29.4% 30% -31.2%
15% -36.2% 29% -37.8%
20% -42.5% 29% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$40 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,235
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses112 / 247
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions1
Markets (closed)359 / 360
History coverage116d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A AlQadsiah Esports 12¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $61 +$93 +152%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $33 −$33 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $21 +$12 +59%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $39 −$38 -98%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro Jun 23 $134 −$131 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $81 −$80 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $60 −$58 -98%
Overwatch: Spacestation Gaming vs The Kafe (BO3) - OCS North America S Jun 20 $13 −$13 -97%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S Jun 20 $81 +$51 +62%
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - South Americ Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $95 +$96 +100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $32 +$63 +197%
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Hero JiuJing (BO5) - King Pro League Stage Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai Jun 16 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$113 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $48 −$47 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $75 +$386 +516%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$64 +312%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $37 +$143 +383%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $19 +$19 +99%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Play Jun 14 $48 −$46 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $45 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $47 −$46 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$19 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $18 −$17 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: TYLOO vs Kingzone (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group S Jun 07 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -95%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $31 +$156 +503%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis (BO5) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 04 $21 +$23 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 03 $41 +$80 +195%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $20 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $21 −$20 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 03 $42 +$13 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 03 $47 −$45 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 12¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam SELL Rune Eaters 99¢ $154 1h
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 39¢ $61 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 24¢ $33 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes $33 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ann Li 18¢ $39 2d
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Insomnia $1 2d
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Insomnia $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $21 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY AM Gaming 11¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY AM Gaming 11¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY AM Gaming 11¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY AM Gaming 11¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY AM Gaming 11¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro BUY AM Gaming 13¢ $72 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 31¢ $30 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $51 2d
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Melsik Baghdasaryan 20¢ $60 4d
Overwatch: Spacestation Gaming vs The Kafe (BO3) - OCS North America S BUY The Kafe 13¢ $13 4d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S SELL OpTic Texas 100¢ $131 4d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S BUY OpTic Texas 61¢ $81 4d
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - South Americ BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 15¢ $21 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $191 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $19 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $76 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 33¢ $32 5d
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Hero JiuJing (BO5) - King Pro League Stage BUY Hero JiuJing 50¢ $51 5d
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai BUY Tianhui Zhang 29¢ $55 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $217 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 606 history records