Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
32 0x323a…876f sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66,480 (-65%) realized −$66,398 · open −$82
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%8W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,691per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$323est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$2,908now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,039
7 days−$458
14 days−$458
30 days−$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$26,481
finance 41% −$39,560
sports 12% +$549
other 5% −$1,088
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -15.7% -23.7% 29% 29% -12.9%
≤30d 24 -15.7% -23.7% 29% 29% -12.9%
≤90d 31 -17.7% -25.6% 26% 26% -71.6%
all 31 -17.7% -25.6% 26% 26% -71.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 26% -71.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 26% -74.3%
15% -39.2% 23% -76.8%
20% -45.1% 16% -79.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$900) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,096 vs −$3,273 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$2,908
Realized−$66,398
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$323
Open positions7
Markets (closed)31 / 38
History coverage86d
Avg bet$2,691
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $700 $659 −$41 (-6%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $580 $570 −$10 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $470 $461 −$9 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $450 $447 −$3 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $440 $430 −$10 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $180 $185 +$5 (+3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $170 $155 −$15 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $730 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $715 −$700 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $717 −$700 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $716 −$700 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $706 +$266 +38%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $698 −$698 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $919 −$900 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $920 −$900 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $705 −$700 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$76 +38%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$49 +24%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$92 +180%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $921 −$900 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,683 −$981 -58%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $716 +$2,465 +344%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $715 +$1,785 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $747 +$2,617 +350%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 12 $1,214 −$1,214 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 11 $40,347 −$40,317 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $11,022 −$7,715 -70%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $30,997 −$17,552 -57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Mar 31 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $499 +$1,420 +285%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 30 $500 −$156 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $592 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $225 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $451 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $276 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $174 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $225 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $184 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $652 3h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $685 3h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $700 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 20h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $716 21h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $715 21h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $717 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $614 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $680 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $62 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $288 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $17 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,907.54 · official $2,907.74 (match) · 377 history records