Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
32 0x323b…df9a other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$322 (+14%) realized +$375 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$596
14 days+$358
30 days+$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$509
sports 25% −$60
world 6% −$75
politics 3% −$11
weather 2% −$49
economics 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +29.0% +16.7% 32% 32% +32.5%
≤30d 28 +15.1% +4.2% 29% 29% +11.8%
≤90d 28 +15.1% +4.2% 29% 29% +11.8%
all 28 +15.1% +4.2% 29% 29% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 29% +11.8%
10% -5.8% 29% +1.1%
15% -14.9% 25% -8.7%
20% -23.2% 25% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$54 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$678
Realized+$375
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions15
Markets (closed)28 / 43
History coverage10d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+29%)
Will Trump say "No No No Donald" in June? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $69 $58 −$11 (-16%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 30¢ 32¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $49 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Tunisia leading at halftime? Yes $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Paraguay leading at halftime? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Japan leading at halftime? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $49 $44 −$5 (-9%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $48 $42 −$6 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $48 $36 −$12 (-26%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $38 $35 −$3 (-7%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes $40 $31 −$9 (-22%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 14¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-54%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes $17 $11 −$6 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $75 −$73 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $64 −$62 -98%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $72 +$564 +785%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 23 $67 −$65 -98%
Panama to win the second half? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $111 +$213 +192%
Uzbekistan to win the second half? Jun 22 $40 −$39 -97%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 22 $37 −$36 -97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $59 +$18 +30%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $76 −$74 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +55%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $51 +$44 +86%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $44 −$43 -97%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $41 +$226 +550%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 22 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $48 +$173 +360%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 21 $79 −$77 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $49 +$179 +365%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 21 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 21 $48 −$47 -98%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$98 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $49 1h
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY Yes $51 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 30¢ $48 1h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $49 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 23¢ $50 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $75 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $64 2d
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 2d
Panama to win the second half? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2d
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes $31 2d
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $72 2d
Uzbekistan to win the second half? BUY Yes $40 3d
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? BUY Yes $37 3d
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $77 3d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 3d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 20¢ $76 3d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $61 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $44 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 3d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $59 3d
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 3d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $49 3d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $221 3d
Will Trump say "No No No Donald" in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $71 4d
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $48 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $678.35 · official $676.67 (match) · 66 history records